Posted: January 31, 2023 | by: Thomas F. McKeon, CFA
In This Issue: From the CIO's Desk, The Return of Yield & Bargains, What Game Are You Playing? a Word About Performance and What's An Investor To Do?
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Although December was a dud, the markets staged a healthy rally in 4Q-2022 to take the edge off an unpleasant year. Late in the year evidence was gathering that stubbornly high inflation was easing. More data points in early January 2023 confirm that reality.
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A few relevant market metric that explain most or all of the down market in 2022.
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With the rising interest rates, yields are up across the board. Short-term treasury yields moved from less than 1.0% at the beginning of 2022 to 4.5% near the end. While investors endured real pain this year as all assets were repriced lower, it is now possible to collect 4.5% on relatively safe U.S. Government issued Treasuries. Bonds across the board are now more attractive than they have been in years.
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There are many different types of participants in the capital markets: longterm investors, day-traders, hedge funds, prop trading desks, and more. They all have different agenda’s, time horizons, capital, etc. Let’s make sure you know the rules of the game for the investing we advise.
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With ETFs, investors large and small (and their advisors) can access broadly diversified, ultra-low-cost market exposures around the globe and build optimally efficient, institutional quality portfolios.
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It is of course a given that investors invest to earn a return. Goals, objectives and constraints across the spectrum of investor types may vary widely, but ultimately all investors want to end up with more money than they started with. How investors arrive there can also vary widely.
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Don’t play the Wall Street game. Invest in market exposures with positive expected returns over your time horizon and well documented historic returns. Limit your activity. Effectively hitch your account cart to the market horse and let time pass. Rebalance infrequently. Manage your behavior. Ignore the touts and endless financial chatter and click-bait. Keep your costs as low as possible, because investors earn returns net of all costs.
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The partnership ended a relatively uneventful year with our weakest quarter to date...a scant return of 0.4% for the quarter. The full year total return came in at 6.45%. Compared to the listed markets- -where the S&P 500 fell almost 20%, our return was welcome diversification. But we are aiming for better returns.
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Performing "The River of Dreams / Hard Day's Night" Medley at the Last Play at Shea
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